NFL Football Picks
DENVER +9.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS
This week the Denver Broncos visit the defending Super Bowl champions Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos are coming off a disappointing loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-14 while the Colts had a tough game but beat the Houston Texans 30-24. The mood in Denver is not good, as the Broncos could easily be 1-2 if it wasn't for Mike Shanahan's perfectly timed time-out against Oakland. The Broncos will need to pick it up on offense and defense to have a chance against the Colts. Things in Indianapolis are rosy as they are 3-0 and looking great even with a hard fought victory against the Texans. The Texans showed that Indy's defense has some holes and Jay Cutler needs to find them to be successful.
In Indianapolis it all starts with QB Payton Manning (873 yds 5 TD 1 INT) leading the Colts 4th rated offense. The Colts rushing game is led by Joseph Addai (271 yds 4 TD) who has played well in the first three Colts games. If Addai has a big game against Denver's 29th ranked rushing D they will be sitting pretty as Manning will not have to do all the work. Manning's targets are Reggie Wayne (16 rec 269 yds 2 TD) and Marvin Harrison (16 rec 223 1 TD) who are both in the top 25 in receiving yards. The Colts cruised in their first two games before being tested by the Texans and can't fall asleep against the Broncos that although are not firing on all cylinders have a talented team. The Colts defense let up last week and did not play very well against Houston giving up 24 points. There defense is a good one ranked 5th in the NFL and strong against the run, 14th, and the pass, 10th. Cornerback Marlin Jackson is 2nd in the NFL with 33 tackles and safety Bob Sanders has 2 sacks. The Colts play great team defense and will need to get to Cutler to make him make quick decisions in the pocket. If the Broncos can protect Cutler well and establish the rushing game it may have to be a shootout for the Colts to win, which they would welcome.
The Broncos are 2-1 but all is not well in Denver. QB Jay Cutler (795 yds 3 TD 4 INT) has been up and down but has made some bad decisions that have led to turnovers. He must protect the ball against a good Colts D. The Broncos rushing attack is led by Travis Henry (302 yds 1 TD) who has not fumbled in the first three games. The Broncos have to improve on the woeful 47 rushing yards they had last week against the Jaguars. Cutler's targets are Brandon Marshall (17 rec 267 yds 1 TD) and Javon Walker (19 rec 230 yds 0 TD). The Denver offense is ranked 6th in the league but must control the ground game and not get into a shootout, which visiting teams never win in Indianapolis. If Henry can get it going and Cutler can make smart decisions the Broncos have a chance. The Broncos D is ranked 3rd in the league. They are not strong against the run, ranked 29th, but 1st in the NFL in pass defense. Playing against Manning and company it's a good thing its not the other way around. Champ Bailey leads the D. as teams rarely throw to his side. This will be the first big test for the Broncos as in their first three weeks they played teams that were not strong passing. That will all change this week. The Broncos D has to pressure Manning or they will be in big trouble. The Broncos have not played well but expect Shanahan to shake things up and have a good game plan. The Broncos will not win the game but it will be close and they will cover the spread.
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